The Growing Food Crisis

John Xenakis of the site Generational Dynamics has provided a new article on the food shortage situation that we are now facing on a global basis. The following excerpt from the article was an important insight for me:

My own rough estimate is that food production grows by 0.96% per year, while population growth exceeds 1.72% per year (since 1950), and is 2-4% in some countries. (However, the United States population has been growing around 0.92% per year.)

To bring the amount of food per capita back to 1950 levels would require the elimination of some two billion people. That's why I've been using the figure two billion as the estimated number of deaths that will occur in the coming Clash of Civilizations world war. This result is mathematically unstoppable, despite the protestations of politicians and college professors who seek money, in the name of fighting starvation and poverty, for their committees, their pet projects, and their personal bank accounts.

At present, the possibility of food shortages has not entered into the mainstream consciousness of Singaporean society. While we can all help to raise awareness at the individual level by talking to our family members, friends and colleagues, it is also important that we start working on steps like food storage and urban agriculture so as to increase our available food supplies.

Also important is to be conscious that we as a country waste a lot of food, judging from the amount of uneaten food that I have observed at food courts. A big step in helping to improve the food shortage situation would be to waste less, which is far more energy-efficient than to try to convert waste food into usable fuel for cars!

Preparing for higher food prices

Based on anecdotal evidence from my mother's trips to the supermarket and wet market, food prices have been increasing recently.

At the macro level, various disasters in Russia, Pakistan and other parts of the world have resulted in lower crop output, and food availability on the global markets is further exacerbated by the recent Russian decision to ban wheat exports until late 2011. On a longer term basis, that there are increasing worries about global food supplies can be seen in the intense M&A battles over top-quality fertiliser companies, such as the Rio Tinto bid for PotashCorp of Canada.

Given the likelihood of pressure on global food supplies, it would be prudent for us to practise food storage at home. The habit of buying and keeping extra food can help to lower our food costs over the longer term, as it allows us to plan our purchases when items are put on sale by the supermarket chains. Of course, storing food implies having a system for tracking expiry dates so that we consume the items on a timely basis, and rotate them periodically, buying new supplies to replenish the stock levels.

Besides food storage, for those who are so inclined, growing a small set of food crops can also be done, even if one is living in an HDB flat. For more information, one can visit the Green Culture Singapore forum, where enthusiasts provide tips for growing food in small areas.

By doing what are within our means, we can hopefully ameliorate some of the effects of the coming food crunch and help protect our families to some extent.

A Short Introduction

During the last 2 years, we in Singapore have gone through the global financial crisis, a swine flu scare, the escape of a terrorist, flash floods and a major failure of an electronic banking network. Reflecting on these events and looking at the wider global environment that we are now in, I personally come away with the feeling that we are moving into a period of greater uncertainty.

While a lot of things are beyond our control, there are things we can do to better prepare ourselves to face challenges, expected or otherwise. This is somewhat similar to buying insurance, except we do so by 'spending' time and effort in educating ourselves and changing our habits and lifestyles to make them more resilient.

What I hope to do is to share some thoughts on what we can do to live a better-prepared life, so as to safeguard ourselves, our families and communities in times of uncertainty.