Oil Market Tightness by 2015

The Oil Drum has reported on the presentation given by geologist Jeffery Brown at the ASPO-USA 2010 Peak Oil Conference. The inventor of the Export Land Model, Mr. Brown was reported to have highlighted that Saudi Arabia could stop being an oil exporter by 2030, and that rapid demand growth in China and India could crowd out the rest of the world's demand:

He pointed to the problems that Venezuela is seeing, and noted that consumption in Saudi Arabia is rising at 6.9% a year. He anticipates that Saudi Arabia, until recently the largest exporter (now behind Russia), will stop exporting before 2030. Looking at the top 5 exporting nations, who collectively supply 50% of the imported oil around the world, he anticipates that they will have shipped half of their remaining export volume in two years. There are now only 33 countries that produce more than 100,000 bd. And, for these, production is sensibly flat over the past five years, while consumption has risen from 16 to 17.5% of production.

While unconventional oil is supposed to be a positive contributor in the future, he noted that when Canada and Venezuela are combined, production is actually falling. The worrying factor is the combination of China and India, who have increased imports from 11.3% of the total in 2005, to 17.1% in 2009. If this continues they will consume 25% of global oil exports by 2015, which will significantly reduce the amount available to the rest of us.

You can read the report from The Oil Drum here.

Perhaps something to think about when you plan to buy your next car.