Saturday, December 25, 2010

Some Thoughts About COE Prices

Some random thoughts about the recent elevated COE prices:

1. Car dealers are partly responsible for the rapid increase in prices, even though reduced future supply has an important role to play. Yet, the same dealers are now asking the government to cut other car taxes so that affordable to not decrease further and discourage more buyers. This is a case of shooting yourself in the foot and then asking the government for help.

2. If the US military is right in its assessment of future world oil supplies, by 2015, there will be a 10 mbpd shortfall relative to demand. In Singapore, this will either mean shortages or very high prices. I suspect that if this scenario plays out, more than a few people will be wondering what they were thinking paying $70K for their COEs.

3. A $70K COE costs more than 1 kg of gold. To me, this is clearly a bubble. People's perception of value is severely distorted.

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