Tuesday, March 29, 2011

Stocks - Time for Caution

In the week after the Sendai earthquake in Japan, there was a report in ST on 19 March wherein some market analysts were saying that the correction in the stock market presented a good 'buy on weakness' type of opportunity.  While some of the arguments were interesting, they appear to me to have seriously underestimated the risks from the unfolding events in the Middle East/North Africa as well as the ongoing sovereign debt crisis in Europe.

Furthermore, looking at the Singapore market action itself, there appears to be a mood of caution amongst the speculators, while the markets in the US shows hints of distribution.  The US markets, still leaders in terms of being able to influence global investor sentiments, show more signs of nearing a top than rather than good entry points for long-term holdings.  The only thing, some would argue, that is keeping the market from dropping is the billions of dollars funneled into the market by the US Fed via its QE2 programme.

As such, I would hesitate to say that now is the time for long-term investors to accumulate stocks.  This is a trading market.

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