"The cost of energy, the cost of electricity is going to get higher and higher no matter what. This is a difficult political reality we have to accept. The age of cheap energy is over."
In addition, Charles Maxwell of Weeden & Co, a very well-regarded energy analyst, in an interview piece with Forbes magazine, expects peak oil production to occur between 2015 and 2020:
"A bind is clearly coming. We think that the peak in production will actually occur in the period 2015 to 2020. And if I had to pick a particular year, I might use 2017 or 2018. That would suggest that around 2015, we will hit a near-plateau of production around the world, and we will hold it for maybe four or five years. On the other side of that plateau, production will begin slowly moving down. By 2020, we should be headed in a downward direction for oil output in the world each year instead of an upward direction, as we are today."
So it looks to me like the voices of Peak Oil are increasingly getting heard in the mainstream media.
Unfortunately for Singapore, there does not appear to be any discussions about how to mitigate the risks arising from more expensive and less available energy. One typical response that I get is this - "Don't worry, as our farsighted government should have some plans to deal with this contingency. It's just that they have not disclosed anything to avoid causing panic". Given that we import 100% of our energy needs, such complacency is most unfortunate.
I would suggest that as individuals, we take a look at the way we are currently using energy in our daily living and find ways to economise as well as to look for feasible alternatives. The latter is challenging given that most of us live in HDB flats and are thus constrained in terms of producing our own energy. That said, we should still keep trying to look for solutions, especially considering the possible downside risks in a peak oil situation.
No comments:
Post a Comment