Oil demand (excluding biofuels) continues to grow steadily, reaching about 99 million barrels per day (mb/d) by 2035 — 15 mb/d higher than in 2009. All of the net growth comes from non‐OECD countries, almost half from China alone, mainly driven by rising use of transport fuels; demand in the OECD falls by over 6 mb/d. Global oil production reaches 96 mb/d, the balance of 3 mb/d coming from processing gains. Crude oil output reaches an undulating plateau of around 68‐69 mb/d by 2020, but never regains its all‐time peak of 70 mb/d reached in 2006, while production of natural gas liquids (NGLs) and unconventional oil grows strongly.
The part in bold font is consistent with what leading peak oil experts have been saying for the past few years, namely that conventional crude oil output peak at around 75 mbpd in the 2005-06 time frame, and that what has keep output growing in pace with demand has been the rising role of NGLs, coal-to-liquids, biofuels and other non-conventional liquid fuels.
Unfortunately, this important piece of news has received little or no coverage in Singapore. Given the importance of trade to our economy, and the dependence of trade on fossil fuels, this is disappointing although predictable.
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