In the article, the issue of the break-down of globalisation and even advanced industrial activities were considered, these being a corollary of the breakdown in both the global financial system and a short-fall in the output of oil. While such a prediction may not come to pass any time soon, I believe that the scenario is worth contemplating, especially with regard to how it would impact Singapore's economic survival. Personally, I find thinking about such a scenario allows one to appreciate the fragility of our country and to pierce through what I believe is a false sense of security arising from our national wealth.
Be that as it may, I also feel that the article provides some useful inputs as to the type of issues that we have to be prepared for in terms of dealing with unfavourable future outcomes.
Hi. I came across this site and I was markedly impressed by your thinking - many people currently seem to be living their lives blindly unaware of how close to the edge of (socioeconomic not religious!) apocalypse we are, even in the so-called "developing" Asian economy. Especially that.
ReplyDeleteJust a question though - do you believe in being prepared for a sustained drop in real income and economic opportunity, but overall social order being maintained (ie. your money in the bank is still worth something, and you won't have to barter for goods) or do you think there is a possibility in Singapore of complete social collapse and/or reversion to extreme emergency-type oligarchic rule (think Somalia / Zimbabwe or a Latin American state after a coup where the "state" is essentially armed thugs harvesting what little is left for elite interests?)
In reply to your question, I currently don't see signs of a complete social collapse in Singapore, given our small size and the resources that the government has in terms of keeping things under control. That said, if the effects of peak oil become pronounced, there could be oligarchic rule in the sense of the State centralising even more things and having firmer control of things, in order to allocate very limited energy resources.
ReplyDeleteAs of now, I am trying to prepare for a milder version of reduced economic opportunities.